World's Energy

Nov. 27, 2006 Kommersant by Vladislav Inozemtsev, director of the Center for Researching the Post-Industrial Society
// Russia needs to declare the entry to the EU as its goal
Off-the-road maps
“Theory becomes a material force as soon as it has gripped the masses,” said Karl Marx. It is clear today that none of the ideas thrown into the society by Russian authorities have any chances to become that “material force”. Only those who are satisfied with everything can support united Russia when nothing threatens its unity. The very language of Russia’s political elite is rapidly turning into a mixture of blatant lies and meaningless bureaucratic wordings. Recent reforms in the electoral system show that authorities realize their inability to lead the people, and that they prefer to waive the people’s right to participate in the political process. Yet, is it really true that Russians are satisfied with their position and the situation in the country? According to Levada-Center’s recent polling, 30% of Russian citizens are satisfied with the authorities’ economic policy, while 63% are not. Ethic atmosphere in Russia satisfies 15%, and dissatisfies 81%. Over 65% do not think that the actions of federal authorities help create an effective system for governing Russia. On the whole, Russians do not believe that the development according to some special “Russian pattern” is going well enough. Are there patterns to follow? Only 5% of Russians think that Russia is rather an Asian country which should cooperate with its neighbors in Asia. Larger half of the population approves of the European pattern (41% according to ROMIR-monitoring). Sixty-nine percent like the EU itself, and 86% of Russians like the citizens of EU states. And it is the EU, and not the West in general. Sergey Yastrzhembsky has recently acknowledged that nearly 80% of Russians like the EU, while a little over 50% like the West in general. Despite this, and the fact that EU share in Russia’s export is 60.4%, and 53.2% in import, while European countries provide about 70% of foreign investment into Russia, the country’s European future is not very promising. Demagogic speeches about “getting closer” to the EU are beneath criticism. Russia is rapidly diverging from European principles of market competition, democracy, and human rights, while Europe is desperately trying to protect itself from investment of Russian state companies, and to diversify the supply of energy resources. “Common spaces”, the agreement on which was signed in Moscow last May, remain fictional. Meanwhile, speeches of Russian politicians are changing. In 2002-2003, the predominating statement was that “the EU does not want Russia”. In Financial Times’ recent article, President Putin openly declared that “we do not set the goal to enter the EU”. At the same time, Europe remains attractive for Russian citizens. Many see Europe as the paragon of social market economy, of honest electoral competition, and even as the force capable of countering US hegemony. Yet, even more surprising is the level of trust to courts: there are 18,500 claims from Russian citizens, who lost hope to achieve justice at home, in the European Court of Human Rights. We might suppose that a political force which will risk using the slogan opposite to Putin’s “we do not set the goal to enter the EU” will have good electoral chances.
European Russia Project
Strategically, European Russia project is based on 2 circumstances. On the one hand, Russian society is growing indifferent and disappointed due to the administration’s increasing abuse of power and the material disparity, along with civil freedoms curtailment. The country’s sovereignty is now used to the advantage of its ruling elite, while the European pattern of voluntary surrender of some sovereign functions for the sake of common institutions, which would be able to call red tape to task, cannot help finding support. On the other hand, in the new world of the XXI century, Russia is ‘squeezed’ between united Europe (the largest subject of world economy with $13.4 trillion of gross regional product) and China (whose GDP is 4 times more than Russia’s). The U.S. cannot be Russia’s ally as well. In such position, Russia will inevitably have to come closer either to its western or eastern neighbors, so as not to get torn by the “lines of tension” in Eurasia. And Europe looks like a more attractive ally. Finally, Russia-EU maximum rapprochement, followed by Russia’s entry to the EU, would drastically change the world’s political and economic map. Together, the EU and Russia would become the biggest market in the world. Their total gross product would reach about $15 trillion. They would have raw-material and technologic independence which no other country has. And their military potential would greatly exceed that of the U.S.
Russia’s European Mission
This strategic project will undoubtedly encounter an important tactic obstacle which results from the peculiarities of Russian national self-perception. For centuries, Russians saw their country as a special civilization with international historic mission, and as great in its selfhood, but not in following western recommendations. So, we should not hope that most Russian citizens would want to be ‘subordinate’ to Europe, especially now when authorities do everything to make the people see their country as a fortress besieged by enemies. However, Russia’s aspiration to Europe might be represented as caused by the desire to save the Old World and to give it a new impulse – economic and political, to save Europe as a Christian civilization by replacing the influx of Islamic migrants with labor reserves of Russia and Ukraine. So, we might suppose that the idea of integrating Russia into the EU for the sake of saving aging Europe from the threats of the new century will not be rejected. French politologist Dominique Mo�si said that if there were “one West and two Europes” in the last years of Cold War, there is “one Europe and two Wests” in the modern world. This solves the eternal dilemma of Russia, allowing it to return to united Europe without becoming a completely western country. It is absolutely necessary to seize that opportunity. Russia has no one else to go with in this world, and one can’t go far alone, neither Russia, nor united Europe. Russia’s movement towards Europe might cause serious resistance of the now-ruling “national security-tycoon elite” which is so used to seeing the country as its own property. However, this movement is now able to unite broad stratum of healthy forces who no longer believe either in abstract democracy or in abstract justice. The only thing which can summon those forces is the paragon of actual democracy and justice, and that paragon now exists in the EU only.