World's Energy

 11–20–2006 Interfax News – The Democratic Party’s recent victory in the midterm congressional elections in the U.S. will have diverse effects on Russian-U.S. relations, Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry President Yevgeny Primakov has said. “
On the one hand, we do not always have an easy time with the Democrats when they are in power, because issues related to human rights and democracy in the American understanding of these concepts are brought up much more often,” Primakov, a former prime minister and foreign minister, said in an interview with Interfax. “This is sometimes done without taking into account internal conditions, the internal situation, and the alignment of forces in Russia and without understanding that we are in the process of a difficult search for optimal solutions,” Primakov said. On the other hand, Primakov suggested that “the era of unilateralism” in the U.S. is ending. “The unilateralist doctrine was declared by the Bush Administration at the suggestion of neo-conservatives, whose position in the new situation is now weak,” Primakov said. “The matter does not only imply Rumsfeld’s resignation. Even more colorful figures – Paul Wolfowitz and Richard Perle – have left the administration somewhat imperceptibly,” he said. “The erosion of the unilateralism doctrine started with the developments in Iraq,” Primakov said. Although the U.S. leaders said in the first days of the operation in Iraq that the UN would not play any role in this, the U.S. had ultimately had to appeal to the UN, Primakov said. “But everything started with a doctrine that proclaimed the United States’ independence or, if you will, self-reliance in solving all major international issues at their own discretion,” he said. “In other words, the combination of these factors will have quite a mixed effect on our relations with the U.S.,” Primakov said. At the same time, the U.S. Administration now has “a slight chance to somewhat strengthen its positions in the new conditions at home if there is some progress, for instance in the Middle East,” Primakov said. “This progress could be achieved only through the U.S.’s cooperation with Russia and Europe, with the United States and Russia being the main actors here,” he said. Russia is maintaining contacts with both sides to the Middle East conflict and has some influence on Syria, Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah, Primakov said. Hamas has undergone some evolution after it came to power and could be a party in negotiations with Israel now, Primakov said. “There is every reason to suggest that Hamas, after it came to power, has undergone some evolution, however gradually it has been done, toward turning into a force that could join negotiations with Israel,” he said. “I had the chance to see this myself while meeting recently with Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal in Damascus,” he said. Commenting on Israel’s recent shelling in Gaza, Primakov called this “a desperate attempt to crush Hamas, which appears counterproductive even from the Israeli viewpoint.” “I am deeply convinced that the way out of the impasse could be found only through negotiations, through convening a peace conference at the initiative of the Quartet of mediators. The Quartet should consult with all parties and develop a compromise settlement plan,” Primakov said. “True, a compromise always produces opponents on all sides,” Primakov said. “But this is the only way toward a settlement. Therefore, I believe that this compromise plan should be imposed on all parties to the conflict, including Israel, the Palestinians, and Syria,” he said. Primakov called for taking into account the real state of affairs in the Middle East. “It is absolutely clear that Israel has not won by launching a large-scale military operation in Lebanon,” he said. “I could assume that Israel’s bombing of the entire territory of Lebanon disabling its infrastructure was aimed at producing a force inside Lebanon that would proclaim the liquidation of Hezbollah as its primary goal,” he said. He recalled that Israel’s occupation of Lebanon in 1982 prompted local forces to demand the expulsion of armed Palestinians from Lebanon. “Israel has failed to achieve this goal. It is absolutely clear that Israel will not be able to establish its borders recognized by the international community in a military way,” he said. Primakov also suggested that there should be no haste in the execution of the death penalty recently handed down to Saddam Hussein. “It seems to me that it would be wiser not to rush, especially bearing in mind that the court ruling’s hastiness was prompted to a large extent by the midterm congressional elections in the U.S.,” he said. “The elections are behind, and now this issue does not seem that pressing to American public opinion,” he said. Saddam Hussein’s execution will not stabilize the situation in Iraq, Primakov said. “I disagree with the experts, mainly the Americans, who believe that Iraq is on the verge of a civil war. What ‘verge’ are we talking about while, according even to the U.S. estimates, 650,000 people have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. started the operation?” he said”.  “You have to admit that the clashes between the Shiites and the Sunnis have grown into a real civil war,” Primakov said. The Shiites have had the experience of a regime leaning on the Sunnis, “but there have not been religious-motivated clashes between the Shiites and the Sunnis since time immemorial.” “The Sunnis were given priority to the Shiites in government appointments and had more power under Saddam. Naturally, they will interpret the execution as a blow to their interests,” Primakov said. “This would further fuel disagreement between the Shiites and the Sunnis, because the Shiites will basically support both the death penalty and Saddam Hussein’s actual execution,” he said.